Sue_Palka's Blog

Hi Friends---I just had to post these photos today  showing the tiny town of Gilchrist, Texas before and after Hurricane Ike wiped it off the narrowest point of the Bolivar Peninsula.   There were 200 homes in this location before Ike's surge, and now there is one.  You literally can't even find wreckage strewn about, which likely means that Gilchrist suffered a second  "reverse" surge when the hurricane's winds drove the water in from the other side after it passed to their north. 

Hi Friends! I recently blogged about Hurricane Ike's storm surge and the grave warnings that were issued by the local National Weather Service prior to last week's landfall. Below are before and after photos (courtesy of the U.S. Geological Survey) of the Bolivar Peninsula east of Galveston Island, which appears to have taken the worst surge---approx. 14 or 15 feet. You can see that most of the homes have been obliterated or at the very least severely damaged. Unbelievable!

UPDATE: Tropics are quiet now...but the season lasts until November 30th...and some long range models forecast a bit of an "uptick" in activity in about 3 weeks.

Hi All! I know we've been talking about Hurricane Ike for awhile now, but it will be coming ashore in the Texas upper coast late Friday or Saturday and the storm surge is projected to be catastrophic. Storm surge is equivalent to a rapidly rising high tide, and Ike's surge could reach 15 to 22 feet in the Galveston area on its projected path (which could still change somewhat)

Below is a local statement from the Galveston National Weather Service:

Shoreline of Galveston Bay... 15 to 22 feet

Life threatening inundation likely!

All neighborhoods... and possibly entire coastal communities...
will be inundated during the period of peak storm tide. Persons
not heeding evacuation orders in single family one or two story
homes will face certain death. Many residences of average
construction directly on the coast will be destroyed. Widespread
and devastating personal property damage is likely elsewhere.
Vehicles left behind will likely be swept away. Numerous roads
will be swamped... some may be washed away by the water. Entire
flood prone coastal communities will be cutoff. Water levels may
exceed 9 feet for more than a mile inland. Coastal residents in
multi-story facilities risk being cutoff. Conditions will be
worsened by battering waves. Such waves will exacerbate property
damage... with massive destruction of homes... including those of
block construction. Damage from beach erosion could take years to
repair.

This is similar to a statement that was put out by NWS in New Orleans during Katrina. Let's hope everyone is out of there by now. The worst surge will be late Friday night and Saturday.

Sue

Hi Friends! As you may have heard, our second named storm of the 2008 hurricane season has developed into a major hurricane with winds of 115 mph as of Monday July 7th... and the long range track has it coming very close to Bermuda this weekend.

You may remember another Hurricane Bertha if you have a fondness for these big storms...or perhaps had your July 1996 vacation spoiled by her. Hurricane names are recycled every 6 years if they don't become costly or deadly storms... a great deal of sensitivity is given to what kind of damage the storm creates at landfall. The first Bertha was an unusually early season Cape Verde hurricane that formed at exactly the same time as this storm on July 1st 1996 off the coast of Africa. It eventually made landfall on the North Carolina coast on July 12th as a weak category 2...with top winds around 105 mph. The damage was primarily between Wrightsville and Topsail Beach--with Kure Beach taking a pretty big hit and losing their fishing pier. The storm did 250 million in damage and was responsibile for 8 deaths..damaging to be sure, but not enough to retire the name. Here's a link to the archive on the 1996 Bertha from the Hurricane Center.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/1996bertha.html

I remember the 1996 Bertha very well because Fox sent me down to cover it! It was the first time I had ever experienced a hurricane and it was one of the most exciting and frightening things I have ever done. Because Bertha wasn't horrendously strong by hurricane standards, my photographer and I stayed out in it almost the whole time it was making landfall. What a learning experience! Even with a cat 2 hurricane I could barely stand up...and it made me realize that there's no such thing as a weak hurricane! We expected it to make landfall to our south around Hilton Head, and were we ever shocked when the eye passed right over us while we were out shooting. As the wind stopped and the sun came out, I remember thinking, "oh no--is it over already?" only to have the wind start howling like a wild animal 30 minutes later. Most of the camera crews didn't shoot the eye because we just figured the storm had missed us and was over. The sideways rain felt like needles but the water was incredibly warm and the air was fragrant with tropical scents. We ended up being right where we needed to be just as Bertha made landfall. I'll never forget it...and this new storm born around the same time of year is a powerful trigger! Let's hope this Bertha stays offshore!

Here is video of Fox's Noon News where I was the last live shot before the satellite trucks had to shut down...about two hours before Bertha's worst winds came ashore.

Hi Friends!  I'm sure you've heard by now that this weekend we set our clocks forward one hour as Daylight Saving Time begins early this year.

Why so early?  In 2005, Congress passed the ENERGY POLICY ACT to expand daylight saving time as a way to conserve energy.  The hope was that businesses and homes would use less electricity and oil if it stayed lighter longer.  This does mean that we all "lose" an hour of precious sleep this weekend, and that really throws some of us off.  I always notice that my cats are waking me up much earlier after this happens because they're ready to eat and I'm still snoozing!

The American Academy of Sleep Medicine suggests  the following:

 *  Have dinner an hour earlier

 *   Start readjusting your sleep schedule a few days in advance by going to bed earlier

 *  Keep a light schedule on the Monday after the time change

Personally, I love this decision to expand DST as I enjoy the extra hour of daylight.  I'm always sad when it's time to return to standard time, which will occur this year on November 2nd.  The firefighters suggest this is a great time to change the battery in your smoke alarm too!

So what's your take?  Do you like the earlier start to DST? 

Blog with you soon- Sue

If you're scratching your head wondering what in the world is going on---from the record-setting February heat, to the unprecedented and horrendous Super-Tuesday tornado outbreak, you can chalk most of it up to the weather pattern called La Nina.

Today, the Climate Prediction Center said that La Nina has strengthened and is forecast to continue through the Spring in the Northern Hemisphere.  La Nina is a cooling of the sea surface temperatures in the Tropical Pacific...the opposite of El Nino where the sea surface temps are wamer than average.  La Nina affects the jet stream that steers storm systems.  In the U.S, it will likely lead to the following conditions from February through April:

1. Above average precipitation for the Pacific NW, Northern Rockies, Ohio and Tennessee Valleys.

2. Below average precipitation for the south---especially the southeastern U.S.

In other words, a continuation of what we've had---with the storm track mostly favoring wet systems that track to the west of the DC metro.

Here is a link to the CPC's updated La Nina forecast, just released today.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_mo
nitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.doc

What's YOUR take on our winter so far??

Blog with you soon--Sue P.

Everyone is asking for more information about the Friday morning forecast, so I thought I would give you our latest thinking about the storm that will begin to affect us just before dawn.

First off, we are highly confident that most of the area will see nothing worse than heavy rain from this storm.  It will only be just cold enough to see a touch of pre-dawn sleet or freezing rain in the close-in counties west of DC before temperatures begin to rise.  I think the bigger problems are going to be along and west of Interstate 81(where the Winter Storm Warning is issued)  That's because the trapped cold air will allow the freezing rain to build up a small ice accumulation of about 1/4" on tree limbs and any other surfaces below 32.  Even in this area it should change to rain around the noon hour on Friday, and the rain should melt any icy build-up.  Believe it or not, there is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms east of DC on Friday afternoon, and the wind with any storms that become severe could bring down some limbs.  The temperature will rise to 50-55 degrees in some places Friday afternoon.  Weekend looks awesome!

I know what most of you really want to know: is there going to be school tomorrow? 

I don't think that will be a difficult call at all for school officials Friday morning, and I suspect that we will see some 2 hour delays west of DC, and some cancellations in the mountain and valley areas.  My guess at this writing is that closer-in counties like Montgomery, Fairfax and Howard would have a 50-50 chance of a two hour delay...but with everything I'm watching in the weather center tonight, I don't think there will be any reason for cancellations, so do your homework, and make sure you pack the rain gear!

Sue

Hi All!  As we watch the Thursday storm depart, there's another one close on it's heels...more on that at the end of this post!

First things first: temperatures will be critical into Friday morning because we're still getting moderate drizzle here in NW DC and across much of the area.  The WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY is extended until 3 am because of the potential for areas of freezing drizzle.  We're not looking at a hard re-freeze overnight, but temperatures will be close to 32 or slightly  below for the entire area.  That means bridges and overpasses could have some slick spots since they tend to be a few degrees colder than other roadways.  Your sidewalk and steps could be pretty slick in the morning as well.  We will likely see some fog overnight as well.  Expect some Friday morning delays.

Friday looks like a nice day after a chilly start...then it's time to focus on the next storm on Saturday which will impact us late afternoon or night.  It is coming up the east coast from Florida, but it appears to be a little farther offshore than this storm was.  Good news for snow lovers:  it should be cold enough for more snow!  Bad news for snow lovers:  we could be on the extreme northern fringe of the snow shield so it won't be a lot of snow.  As always, we're still two days away, and that's too far away to be confident in the track. 

We'll refine those details on Friday, and keep you posted here and on our many newscasts!

Sue

**NEW**

WINTER STORM WARNING FOR LOUDOUN, FAUQUIER, FREDERICK (MD), CULPEPER and points west of that!  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AREAS BETWEEN THERE AND I95

We've been watching the storm all night, and observed that the LOW is still in the Gulf of Mexico as of 9:00, and the precip shield is already into southwest Virginia.   This storm is front-loaded with precip, and is  faster and stronger than the computer models are "seeing" it today.  That means it will start earlier in the morning rush hour and in the "warning" area it will likely stay all snow, meaning several inches of snow for areas in the warning. 

We still think there will be a mix in the ADVISORY area, and that will keep totals down. It could make for difficult commutes, especially since salt and sand trucks will be competing with morning rush hour traffic.  Tough call again for area schools because we won't have accumulation until about mid-morning. 

I recommend checking in early and often on myfoxdc.com's weather pages, (and weather at a glance page) since this forecast is changing, and will likely continue to be updated.  You can keep a close eye on radar and time your travel by that as well. 

Be smart on the roads, and send us your pix--we'll post them!

Sue

If you're going to be hitting the road over the holidays, we've got "one stop shopping" for you before you head out of town, and when you get ready to return to the area! 

Here on myfoxdc.com, we've got amazing interactive maps and high definition radar that will show you all the weather conditions, forecasts and warnings you need for the city or even the zip code that you plan to visit, anywhere in the United States! 

Are you planning to do some skiing or snowboarding over the holidays?  You've GOT to check out our Skiing and Boarding interactive maps that show you the resorts, conditions, prices, web cams and even diagram how many trails are open! 

When it's time to head back home, we'll have you covered with the latest forecast through our mycasts that are updated several times a day, and WEATHER AT A GLANCE that shows you everything from the evening forecast to the 5 day!

Check out the link below, and I will personally walk you through our WINTER WEATHER INTERACTIVE pages. 

Click here to watch my video explainer.

All of us at Fox 5 wish you safe travels, and we thank you for another year of  loyal viewership on WTTG and myfoxdc.com!  

Sue

Hi Blogsters!  Lots of people buzzing about the weekend storm, and while it hasn't even formed yet, the computer models are beginning to develop some consistencies. 

 First off, the storm should begin to develop over West Texas on Friday.  It will have a big impact on many parts of the country, not to mention some possible thunderstorms in the south since we still have lots of warm air down there.  It  appears as though we will begin to see some light snow/sleet or even freezing rain in the DC area sometime Saturday afternoon.  At some point on Saturday night, that wintry mix may change over to rain.  (although it should stay mainly snow west of Interstate 81).   The rain should change to light snow before ending on Sunday.   I would expect Sunday afternoon and night to be quite windy and cold behind the departing storm.  This "event" is still over 36 hours away, so expect some changes.  Many details will be worked out by late on Friday,  so make sure you check out our forecasts throughout the day.

Heads up: this storm will pack a much bigger punch to our north, and travelers heading that way will be impacted on Sunday.

In the short term: DENSE FOG ADVISORY has been issued for much of the area tonight.  After some morning fog burns off, Friday should feature sun and milder temps near 50.  Enjoy the calm before the storm!  I'll add on to this blog during the day on Friday as needed.

Sue

No shortage of storms to monitor in the Fox 5 Weather Depot tonight! 

Not only do we have the on-going Midwest ice storm continuing to produce problems for portions of Missouri, Iowa and Illinois...but Tropical Storm Olga is moving through the Caribbean and has actually strengthened as of the last update from the Hurricane Center.   We also saw unbelievable pictures of a mudslide in the Pacific Northwest, which was a result of last week's flooding and hurricane force winds out there.

In the DC area, fog is hanging tough tonight although visibilities have improved from earlier this evening and the Dense Fog Advisory was allowed to expire at 8:00.   We've seen quite a range of temperatures again today, with low 70s in Harrisonburg, Virginia and 68 in Elkins, West Virginia!  Washington only topped out at 50, but we'll stay pretty mild overnight as a warm front nudges closer.

Between now and the end of the week, we have two storms to watch that will affect the midatlantic.  The first one begins on Thursday with primarily rain.  I say "primarily rain" because it's possible there could be a bit of freezing rain across Northern Maryland when it starts on Thursday morning.  That's forecast challenge #1. 

Our second storm is even more challenging, and it's way too early to be definitive on what will happen.  We know it will affect us Saturday and Sunday, and that it may be a combination of rain, snow and even some freezing rain.  This could be a "significant" storm for us (weather code for overtime,stress and possible accumulating snow) but the good news is that whatever happens will be on days when school is not in session.  At this point we have more questions than answers about the weekend storm, and we have literally spent ALL night looking at the computer models and comparing various runs.  We've got several days to nail down this forecast (and we'll need the time, believe me) but we want you to be aware that the weekend could pose some travel problems.  That my friends, is forecast challenge #2.  As the car dealers say, this could be a December to remember.

We'll stay on top of it here with the blogs and our newscasts.

Sue P

Hey Folks---wanted to make sure you all read SkyGuy's blog about Comet Holmes which is visible even without binoculars or a telescope. In a nutshell, this comet has been around for awhile, but for some unknown reason it has brightened dramatically and is now about half as big as the full moon! It is seen near the constellation Perseus in the northeast, and SkyGuy has a chart on his blog (in weather blogs) that you can use to find it in the sky. SkyGuy says it may be developing a tail...and the astronomy world is all abuzz!

Also, I'm attaching a photo from viewer David Abbou so you can see what it looks like through binoculars. David says it looks like a fuzzy cotton-ball.

In the 90s we all raved about the unexpected appearance of Comet Hale-Bopp---maybe Comet Holmes will be a once-in-a-lifetime spectacle too! Check it out and leave a comment if you see it! I'll be looking for it tonight on my way home!

Sue

Ok I'll admit it: ever since my kids were old enough to start appreciating Halloween I've found it to be one of my favorite "holidays!"

In case you aren't familiar with its origins, Wikipedia traces the tradition to the Celts who believed that at sunset on "All Hallow's Eve," (the day before All Hallow's Day, the Christian Feast day now called All Saint's Day ) it was easy for "spirits" to make contact with the physical world. Halloween was brought to North America by Irish and Scottish immigrants and is celebrated in Ireland, the U.K, Canada and Puerto Rico.

I really began to appreciate Halloween when I saw how much joy it brought to my girls, their friends, and my wonderful neighbors who go "all out" on the holiday. Of course, I now have several boxes of Halloween decorations and lights for my home and front porch, and have begun to dress up myself for the amusement of my own kids and the trick or treaters who come to the house. Once I showed up at my daughter's elementary school Halloween Parade as a weather map. (it consisted of me wearing a cork bulletin board around my neck with a map of the United States marked up with fronts and big Hs and Ls.--feel free to steal this idea ---lol!)

So I'm a little nostalgic as this Halloween approaches, because it is the last year I will have a school- age child living under my roof. My youngest daughter is now a senior in high school. We're rushing her through those college application deadlines so she'll have time to be silly next Wednesday. We're going to have yet another Halloween party at my house---and you can watch it yourself live on our 5:00 and 6:00 news on the 31st. (Right now the weather looks sunny and dry...so let's hope it stays that way.)

My most frightening field trip for Halloween is the fearfully realistic MARKOFF'S HAUNTED FOREST in Poolesville, Maryland. The rain will stop in time for you to take a trip out there on Saturday night, and they're adding Monday to make up for the Friday rain-out! The Markoff family has run the "Haunted Forest" for 15 years, and it is great fun! You can link to more info at: www.calleva.org or call 301-216-1248.

I hope Halloween stays as fun for me when my daughter is in college next fall. I'm glad she's planning to dress up and trick or treat one last time. In my opinion, life is too short not to celebrate silliness once a year...so we'll be bringing it on again next week.

What's your take on Halloween? Should older kids trick or treat? Do you get lots of trick or treaters or wish the whole thing would go away? Got any decorating/costume ideas I can steal???

I'll be watching for your comments and keeping the countdown to Halloween going via this blog!

Sue

After the hottest summer since 1998 and a warm start to September, finally a taste of early autumn is on the way!

It's all thanks to a series of cool fronts---one of which brought us the desperately needed rain that we received on Monday and Tuesday.  That front will slip south of DC tonight, and believe it or not some spots will drop into the upper 50s by Wednesday morning.  Wednesday should be a sparkling jewel of a day, with temperatures right around 80 degrees under a brilliant blue sky. 

A second front with a bit more punch to it will approach us on Friday night.  Behind this front we'll see our weekend temps drop into the 70s!  In fact, parts of the northern plains may see cold enough air behind that second front for a touch of frost  up north late in the week.  We'll have to wait several more weeks for that!  I'll be happy to settle for open windows at night for the rest of the week! 

Enjoy this taste of "authentic" September weather, and I'll blog with you soon!

Sue