Kmlwx's Weather Blog

Good morning DC area! I haven't updated this blog here in quite a long time but now I am back and ready for this snowfall. Although the snow today will likely eventually mix with and changeover to snow, there will be a period of snow (starting within the next few hours) that may accumulate to 2-4 inches just north and west of town with greater amounts farther west in the warning area.

To recap...Winter Storm Warning past the close DC suburbs...and advisory all the way into the I-95 corridor but not past the DC/Baltimore areas.

The National Weather Service posted these alerts last night. Some ice accumulation is possible. The changeover will be caused by warming at the surface and aloft. Meteorologist use maps that show "thicknesses" and other maps that show temperatures aloft. The 700mb maps are important along with the 850mb maps and the 500mb maps. The jet stream this time of year is around the 300mb level.

That was off topic lol. Updates through the day and maybe even a few pics if I can get my camera working :D

Good morning to everyone! I hope you all slept well. Late last night I completed my predictions for the winter season (2007-2008). MyFoxDC will be one of the first places I post my thoughts. Below you will find s shortened version of the outlook (full version is just too long to post). Anybody who would like a copy of the full document just drop me a comment or an email. The full document is 15 pages with images and maps.

Enjoy!

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Kenny Weather Winter Outlook 2007-2008

*2006-2007 RECAP*

Last year, the fall was marked by several coastal storms that brought chilly rains to much of the east coast, including the DC and Baltimore areas. Many believed that the pattern would continue into the winter causing a good amount of wintry precipitation to occur. However, much of the winter was snowless with only a few small storm systems affecting the area. February brought a few more significant events, including the snow/sleet and ice storm during Valentine's Week that closed schools and businesses for days.

This year, a different scenario is in place but it may yield some similar results.

*DISCLAIMER*

Long range forecasting has a ton of uncertainty involved with it. This outlook is subject to change as more data becomes available and is analyzed. There is no guarantee of accuracy with this forecast. Do NOT expect the accuracy or detail that would be put forward for a 3-5 day forecast. Long ranger forecasting is a whole other beast.

Data and Analysis

It is expected that a moderate to strong La Nina will develop/continue to impact the Pacfific Ocean. The effects will be widespread as is the case with an El Nino pattern. Analog analysis shows that the normal results from a moderate to strong La Nina were warmer than normal temperatures in the east and south while below normal temperatures occur in the northern plains (near the Canadian border). A sliver of below normal temperatures is also common during La Nina years on the west coast. (CA).

Images will be posted to show the analog map in a seperate post. The image associated with this portion of the outlook will be labeled (Figure 1). A full image table will be shown with the picture post.

Precipitation is generally near normal around the DC area during a La Nina year. However, with above normal temperatures some of this precipitation may fall as liquid variety rather than frozen variety. Analog analysis shows areas of drought may continue in our area as well as the southeast states. Meanwhile, an active storm track up the spine of the Appalacians cuses wetter than average conditions from OH down to AL and MS.

I expect the drought to continue but with some relief occuring during the late fall and winter months. However, in the end, we may come out still in drought by the end of the winter season. The Palmer Drought Severity Index analog maps will be posted as Figure 2.

Data and Analysis - INDICIES and TELECONNECTIONS

Several teleconnections come into play during the winter months. Although many affect the globe year-round many are looked at with even more intensity and scrutiny during the coming months of each year. One of these factors is something called the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The NAO is a "cycle" caused by rocking motions between the Icelandic Low and the Azores High. If you are a snow and cold lover on the east coast, you should be rooting for a NEGATIVE NAO. The positive phase of the NAO doesn't allow for bitter arctic air to slide down into the eastern United States.

Also, big winter storms have a tendency to occur when the NAO is moving from a negative phase back towards positive. Currently (Oct 6), the NAO is trending toward the negative range. This could possibly bring an end to this unseasonably warm pattern. The models are in fairly good agreement of moving the NAO into a negative phase within the next week or two. After that, the models diverge and a lot of uncertainty is present. However, it looks as if the NAO will move back into the positive phase by soemtime in November.

Given that, the NAO could begin to fall back into the negative phase by early winter (December). As it cycles back towards positive in late December or early January, there could be a wintry event for the east coast. After that, it is really anybody's guess.

ANOTHER teleconnection that is used for winter outlooks is the Pacific-North American (PNA). The PNA has an inverse relationship to the NAO. When the PNA is positive the NAO is generally negative and vice versa.

The Pacific Decadal Oscillation is the final factor I will be posting in this blog. The PDO is a multi-decade climate variability. It is strongly linked to the El Nino Southern Oscillation but occurs on a much larger time scale (20-30 years as opposed to 6-18 months with ENSO). A positive phase PDO is favored for a "good" east coast winter. However, it is not wise to only look at one factor.

PREDICTIONS

I predict that December will be the coldest of the winter months with positive temperature departures developing as the winter drags on. For February, I am forecasting that temperature departures in the Mid-Atlantic and southeast could be +1.5 to +2.5.

Precipitation should be below average over much of the south and southeast. An area of wetter than average conditions may exists from OH down to AL due to a storm track up the Appalacians. Miller B type storms (inland runner transferring energy to the coast) will be favored over Miller A storms (from Gulf Coast all the way up the east coast).

For the DC and Baltimore area the average snowfall is between 20-25 inches right around the metro corridor. Much less to the southeast with much more to the north and west. I would expect 10-15 inches of snowfall to be realized. However, due to some warming of temperatures later in the winter, some of the precipitation could fall as rain. Average conversions for snow to rain is 10 inches of snow to 1 inch of rain.

1-2 icing events could also impact the region this winter. The details will have to be worked out when the winter nears.I will update this as more information becomes available.

Good morning to you all. I'm sitting in my Digital Art class right now while multi-tasking. I woke up this morning to see that the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) had removed most of our area from the severe thunderstorm risk today. I am not all that suprised with that move, the frontal system is south of us and we are in a marine layer of clouds and cooler weather. This is working to keep our atmosphere stable. The best chance for any boomers is going to be well to the south and west of our area today.

That picture to the left shows the SPC Day 2 severe storm outlook. They have the DC and Baltimore areas in the risk.

What this tells me is that they are expecting the front to move to our north (placing us in the warm sector). I have also talked to a few people who say that tomorrow could be a rocky day.

If you LIKE storms, you want a cap to be in place until around 11 AM and then you want the cap to errode away so that maximum surface heating can be attained. However, there is a chance that no severe weather will form tomorrow. There will certainly be rain, however, and probably a few rumbles of thunder at the very least.

Another side to this storm is ISOLATED flooding potential. The NWS mentioned it this morning in their Area Forecast Discussion. Any problems will be isolated and therefore, they have chosen not to issue a flood watch. Stay tuned, however.

As I walked home from school today, I was almost uncomfortable in the airmass today. A 17 pound backpack and a sweatshirt from this morning only made things worse. I jsut hope this heat isn't unbearable this summer. Anyway, a few things to talk about...

First off, I have another blog that I will start posting on more often. This is at http://www.kennyweather.blogspot.com/

However, I will do some brief posting here on Fox 5 DC. More comprehensive data will be posted on my Blogspot. Another place you can go to is my actual website at http://www.kennyweather.com/ I am building so much followers especially at my school that it is even spreading outside of our area. My facebook group has 78 members and counting.

WEATHER DISCUSSION

The airmass in place today will cool slightly for tomorrow with a very small chance of an isolated shower or storm tomorrow afternoon. This will be no means be a washout. I think there is a much better shot at some rain or thunder on Wednesday through Thursday. There is even a chance that one or two storms could become severe. Stay tuned for information on that.

More moderate temperatures will move in behind the frontal system responsible for triggering the potential storms this week. Highs in the 70s or upper 60s will replace the almost hot 80s from these past few days. Another warmup is possible next week.

Until next time - Kenny

Before reading on, you may want to read my pleasant post about the nice weather we have been enjoying over this past weekend. This blog entry is going to detail some possible weather events over the next week that may send you into a depression. But if you are ready, keep reading...

After nice weather dominated the weekend, some storm systems and associated frontal systems that are currently FAR out to the west will start to impact weather from the midwest all the way to the east coast. Severe weather has already been occuring this weekend in parts of the upper plains. However, these smaller scale events may be tiny compared to what may be coming this week.

Already, the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has outlooked an area for a fairly high risk of severe thunderstorms - 3 days out. The SPC outlooks severe weather on a scale from Slight (SLGT) to Moderate (MDT) to High (HIGH). Although the first two don't sound ominous, they don't mean exactly what most people think they do. In fact, every single one of those risks indicate severe weather is probably going to happen. The key is in the COVERAGE of the severe weather. I don't want to get caught up in this right now so if you have questions I am happy to answer them...You can email me or leave a comment.

Putting it into normal people terms, this week could hold a nasty severe weather outbreak for portions of the midwest. To see exactly where this risk is please follow the following link...Note that the link is TIME SENSITIVE and will change as the outlook changes.
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk.html

That is the link to the SPC's Day 3 Outlook. That moderate risk is usually not issued 3 days out (because of all kinds of things like forecast uncertainty). So, when they issue an outlook like this 3 days out, they mean BUSINESS. Now of course, the outlook can change, but chances are that somebody in that general area is going to get pounded.

Now I am assuing that most people reading ths blog are from DC, so you aren't going to care much about that outbreak. So I will continue on to my discussion on DC weather...

DC WEATHER

This week will start off just like the weekend...With warm temperatures into the lower 80s on Monday with pretty much clear skies...But to cover my butt I will say mostly sunny. Tuesday will also be quite nice but probably a few degrees cooler. Also, there could be a few more clouds around on Tuesday. Still, no rain is expected then either.

The "problems" start to develop on Wednesday (or so it looks right now). This is when a weather system will start to get near the area. A few isolated showers or thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday. Keep in mind that this can change with later forecasts and I will keep updating.

Thursday looks like the worst day at this point. I've been reading some other peoples thoughts and there seems to be a general consensus that thunderstorms will be most widespread and intense on Thursday. There could even be a few severe storms around. The SPC has not outlooked us in a risk for severe weather yet, but this will need to be watched for updates.

Friday may hold some more thunderstorms or showers, then Saturday it looks to improve. However, temps may be knocked back into the 60s or 70s once the front clears the area.

DISCLAIMER - TO COVER MYSELF :-)

The forecast can change will little or no notice...I am sure that most people are aware of this. I will do my best to keep this blog updated.

For people who had outdoor activities this weekend, the weather was certainly GREAT! Our area, along with many areas across the eastern part of the nation enjoyed warm temperatures that soared to the 80s in our area.

The warm weather is thanks to a ridge of high pressure that has been sitting over the area. This ridge has also been keeping the skies clear for the most part and any bad weather away. Warm temperatures should continue early this week but there could be somewhat of a drop-down later in the week with an approaching frontal system. You can read some of my other blog posts from today to learn about the weather upcoming.

For areas of the midwest, severe weather has broken out for several days in a row, and it may get even worse during this week. I talk about this more in my severe weather blog post. I am typing that right now.

ALSO - CHECK OUT THE LYRID METEOR SHOWER PEAKING TONIGHT!!!
Viewing conditions are GREAT and you may see between 10 and 20 meteors per hour. Some of those could be bright "fireballs" that can even leave smoky trails in the sky.

After last year's mild hurricane season, this year could be more active. Last year was marked by the developing El Nino weather pattern which caused stronger winds aloft to shear storms and tear them apart. Another theory mentioned by some was that dust from the deserts of Africa were being incorporated into the tropical systems and weakening them.

The normal people have released their hurricane outlooks such as Dr. William Gray. He and his team predict an above average hurricane season. Some sources are indicating that the Gulf Coast will be at an elevated risk for a hurricane or tropical storm landfall this season.

More as needed.

After a long time not posting, I am back and ready to start fresh. And of course, what else would be a better time before a potentially serious weather event for the east coast?

Severe weather threat with this storm is already occuring. However, the line of severe storms in the south has weakened somewhat this morning. An SPC Mesoscale discussion issued at around 7 AM our time warned that another watch would be issued later in the morning. Hail, damaging winds, and even tornadoes are possible in areas affected by those storms. Luckily, we will be spared from that in DC.

However, mother nature felt that we sould get in on at least SOME of the action. Heavy rain and wind will be impacting the Washington Area begining tonight and continuing into tomorrow. The National Weather Service has posted a Flood Watch due to the potential for flooding. This flood watch is for areas ALONG AND EAST of interstate 95 in the DC and Baltimore areas. 1-2 inches of rainfall is possible with this system with isolated amounts to 3 inches. This has the potential to cause river flooding, urban flooding, and small stream flooding. NEVER drive your car across flooded roadways...as little as 2 feet of water can sweep a vehicle off the road.

As the storm system moves off of the east coast, it has the potential to commence bombogenesis (where the storms pressure falls rapidly and therefore rapid intensification occurs). Depending on where this occurs will determine some of the smaller mesoscale features with this storm.

Windy conditions may also become a problem Sunday Night and Monday. Wind Advisory criteria wind gusts are possible across the area with the strong pressure gradient from the developing storm. With saturated ground from the heavy rainfall, power outages would be possible with this system. It appears that by later in te day on Monday, we may be catching at least a little bit of a break. But the winds are something that may stick around.

I'll be posting some updates as needed.

It's good to be back and blogging with Fox5DC.